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Winter Flow/Other Resources
Step Wise Guide
Climate Change Vulnerability
Where are the largest changes in winter flow predicted to occur and where do they intersect valuable infrastructure, such as roads?
In the context of assessing climate change vulnerability, it is necessary to first identify locations in a watershed or landscape where the largest predicted changes in winter flows (increased flooding) intersect valuable infrastructure such as roads.
Step 1: Make sure that appropriate fish habitat or other aquatic indices exist in your NetMap dataset using the Map tool. If not or if you wish to modify the habitat predictions or create and apply new models, Go To the Habitat Creator Tool.
Step 2: Make sure there is a road layer loaded in the dataset.
Step 3: Go To theClimate Change Vulnerability Tool. Display the winter flow attribute. Visually search for intersections between road-stream crossings (e.g., culverts and bridges) and predicted large changes to winter flows (increases).
Step 3: Go To the Road-Stream Classification Tool. Classify all road-stream crossings by the predicted change in winter flows. Display the map. Search for the crossings with the highest predicted winter flow increases. Culverts may be at risk at these locations in the future.
The scenarios represent a composite average of ten global climate models (GCM) for the western US using four bracketing scenarios based on four GCMs (ECHAM5, MIROC_3.2, HADGEM1, and PCM1). Predictions are for one greenhouse gas scenario (A1B, a middle of the road scenario for future emissions). Results are in percent change from historical (1916-2006) to forecasts in 2040. Forecasts were obtained from University of Washington Climate Impact Group. For additional background information on how forecasts were made, see here and here.