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Temperature and Wildfire
Step Wise Guide
Climate Change Vulnerability
Where do the largest predicted changes in temperature and flow intersect the highest fire risk?
In the context of assessing climate change vulnerability, it is necessary to first identify locations in a watershed or landscape where the largest predicted changes in temperature intersect with existing high wildfire risk. Wildfire risk may increase in these areas in the future.
Step 1: Using the Climate Change Vulnerability Tool, select from the Temperature drop down list and from the Fire/Erosion list. Select the appropriate attributes (reach or aggregated channel values) and search for stressor-stressor intersections, such as where the highest 5% of forecasted increases in temperature intersect with the highest 5% of current wildfire probability or wildfire severity.
The scenarios represent a composite average of ten global climate models (GCM) for the western US using four bracketing scenarios based on four GCMs (ECHAM5, MIROC_3.2, HADGEM1, and PCM1). Predictions are for one greenhouse gas scenario (A1B, a middle of the road scenario for future emissions). Results are in percent change from historical (1916-2006) to forecasts in 2040. Forecasts were obtained from University of Washington Climate Impact Group. For additional background information on how forecasts were made, see here and here.