Largest Predicted Changes

Step Wise Guide

Climate Change Vulnerability

Identify the largest predicted climate change in your watershed for temperature, precipitation, snow accumulation and summer and winter flows.

In the context of assessing climate change vulnerability, it is necessary to first identify locations in a watershed or landscape where the largest predicted changes in climate are anticipated to occur.

Step 1: Go to the Climate Change Vulnerability Tool. Use the map display to examine spatial patterns of predicted climate change in mean annual temperature, precipitation, snow accumulation and summer and winter flows (grids or rasters and reach and aggregated (local and cumulative) stream values.

Step 2: Using the Climate Change Vulnerability Tool, select only one prediction from the first drop down list and search for the largest predicted change in any of the 7 climate change variables.

Step 3: Using the Climate Change Vulnerability Tool, select from two to three of the climate change predictions to identify overlaps between climate change stressors, such as the highest 10% of temperature increase, highest 10% of precipitation (increase or decrease) and the highest changes in summer or winter flow.

Step 4: Using the Climate Change Vulnerability Tool, select from one to three of the climate change predictions and from the other drop down options (fire/erosion or habitats) and search for overlaps between climate change stressors and either other stressors such as wildfire and erosion or sensitive habitats, such as anadromous salmon.

Data Background:

The scenarios represent a composite average of ten global climate models (GCM) for the western US using four bracketing scenarios based on four GCMs (ECHAM5, MIROC_3.2, HADGEM1, and PCM1). Predictions are for one greenhouse gas scenario (A1B, a middle of the road scenario for future emissions). Results are in percent change from historical (1916-2006) to forecasts in 2040. Forecasts were obtained from University of Washington Climate Impact Group. For additional background information on how forecasts were made, see here and here.